In a bold move that shocked the NFL world back in 2015, the league decided to shake things up by changing the rules around extra points. Little did they know that this change would have a ripple effect on key numbers when it comes to the point spread and the Over/Under in the world of sports betting.
Traditionally, the key numbers of three and seven in NFL betting have been treated with the utmost respect by bettors. These numbers held a sacred status, with bettors placing a significant emphasis on them when placing their wagers. However, the landscape began to shift following the rule change surrounding extra points.
The decision to move the extra point attempt back from the two-yard line to the 15-yard line was a game-changer. The once routine 20-yard attempt was now a more challenging 33-yard endeavor. This move was prompted by the staggering success rates of extra-point attempts in previous years, with teams converting at rates upwards of 99%. It was time for a change.
With the extra point now a more daunting task, bettors speculated that teams would be less inclined to attempt it, leading to more two-point conversion attempts. The theory was put to the test over the next nine seasons to see if the landscape of key numbers had indeed shifted.
As we delve into the data, we find that teams did, in fact, alter their approach to extra points. The rate at which teams opted to kick the extra point following a touchdown decreased significantly after the rule change. Teams went from kicking the extra point 95.2% of the time from 2006 to 2014 to just 90.7% from 2015 to 2023. In 2021, the attempt rate hit an all-time low of 88.3%.
The decrease in extra point attempts has led to a shift in the distribution of winning margins. Since the rule change, there has been a 2.4% increase in six and eight-point games compared to the nine seasons prior to the change. While this may seem insignificant in light of the decrease in extra-point success rates, it has had a noticeable impact on the outcomes of games.
Despite the changes in key numbers and the evolving strategies employed by teams, the NFL remains as unpredictable and thrilling as ever. As teams adapt to the new landscape of extra-point attempts, bettors will need to stay on their toes and adjust their strategies accordingly. The only certainty in the NFL betting world is that nothing is certain, and the only constant is change.
