In the world of the NFL, the eternal debate rages on: is it better to start or sit a rookie QB? Over the past decade, there have been some intriguing trends that have emerged from the draft history.
“There’s a lot of buzz around whether to start or sit a rookie QB for their first season,” says one NFL analyst. “Anecdotally, it’s easier to remember the good cases than the bad.” Everyone recalls the success stories of Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, who both sat behind veteran quarterbacks before finding stardom in the league. However, not every rookie QB who sits ends up thriving in the NFL. Take Rex Grossman, for example, who faded into obscurity after spending most of his rookie season on the bench.
Taking a closer look at the quarterbacks who sat for the majority of their rookie season, it’s clear that there are both hits and misses. Using CBS Sports’ list of QB success rates, it’s evident that some quarterbacks who started immediately have been successful, while others who sat and learned have also found success. In fact, out of the 33 QBs selected in the first round since 2012, 11 out of 26 immediate starters are considered hits, while three out of seven sitting quarterbacks have achieved success.
The successes of quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson, who all spent time learning from the sidelines early in their careers, highlight the benefits of taking a patient approach with rookie QBs. However, there are also cautionary tales, like Trey Lance, who struggled after being thrust into action too soon.
While starting a rookie QB can provide a team with immediate information about their potential, it can also lead to bad habits and stunted development. On the other hand, sitting a rookie QB can allow them to learn and grow without the pressure of starting right away.
In terms of success rates, starting a rookie QB has resulted in a 42% hit rate, while sitting them has yielded a similar 43% hit rate. While sitting may have a slightly higher hit rate, it’s a strategy that is not often employed due to the rarity of teams having the luxury to sit a first-round QB.
Ultimately, the decision of whether to start or sit a rookie QB depends on their individual development and the environment they are in. Some prospects, like Drake Maye, may benefit from a redshirt season to refine their skills, while others, like Michael Penix, may be ready to start from day one.
In the unpredictable world of the NFL, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to developing rookie quarterbacks. Each player and situation is unique, and teams must carefully weigh the risks and rewards before deciding whether to start or sit their young signal-caller.
