In his latest article, our NFL journalist reflects on his Week 3 progress, achieving his first winning week of the season in betting on NFL player props. Looking ahead to Week 4, he aims to continue his winning streak despite a disappointing TNF prop. He believes in the potential of a reliable tight end against a pressure-heavy defense, as well as a star QB poised to shine in a favorable matchup at home.
The Houston Texans may not have shown their offensive prowess yet this season, but Week 4 presents a prime opportunity for them to shine. The journalist is particularly bullish on CJ Stroud’s passing total, especially against the weak Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. With Stroud’s passing total set at 258.5 by BetMGM, he sees this as an achievable number given the vulnerabilities of the Jaguars defense.
The Jacksonville defense, which ranks third in most passing yards allowed per game, presents a favorable matchup for Stroud. Their high rate of man coverage coupled with their struggles in limiting explosive plays make them susceptible to Stroud’s aerial attack. Furthermore, Houston has a trio of wide receivers – Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell – who pose significant matchup problems for the Jaguars.
Industry projections even suggest that Stroud could surpass 273 passing yards, providing some cushion for his prop bet. Notably, Stroud has excelled in home games in the past, making him a strong candidate to hit the over on his passing total this Sunday.
The journalist’s pick for Stroud was made on 9-27 and can be found at -130 on bet365. Despite a slow start to the season, Tyler Conklin emerged as a standout performer in Week 3, benefiting from Aaron Rodgers’ stellar performance. Catching five of six targets for 93 yards, Conklin showcased his potential in a breakout game.
As the NFL season progresses, the journalist remains optimistic about his betting strategy, relying on key matchups and player performances to guide his picks for Week 4. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the action unfolds on the gridiron.
