In his most recent NFL survivor selection, Jason Logan is as confident in supporting the Chicago Bears as he is in fading the Carolina Panthers when the two teams meet in the Windy City.
As we enter October, not many NFL survivor pool players can boast of making it this far this season. The first four weeks of football were brutal for survivor pools, with the Covers 10K Pro Football Survivor Contest now down to just 75 of its original 3,789 entries – a survival rate of less than 2%. Perhaps the “Black Death” deserves more credit than it gets.
(By the way, if you are among the 98% of survivor pool players who were knocked out in September, the good folks at Covers are offering redemption. Take a look at the “Second Chance Survivor Contest” for a chance to win $5,000.)
While Week 4 wasn’t as wild as the previous weeks, a good number of remaining players were eliminated by the Denver Broncos’ surprising victory over the New York Jets.
At this stage, my NFL picks aren’t just about backing winning teams, but also relying on teams to lose.
Here’s my NFL Week 5 survivor pick and the “safest” option according to the latest NFL odds.
(Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston)
Opponent: vs. Carolina Panthers
Moneyline odds: -190 (implied win probability of 65.52%)
One effective survivor pool strategy is to simply pick against the weakest team in the league. That’s what we’re doing with this pick of the Chicago Bears.
The Bears are playing at home against the Carolina Panthers, with the third-highest win probability in Week 5.
The Panthers have put up more of a fight since changing quarterbacks, but they come into this Sunday’s game depleted on defense. The defense just lost top linebacker Shaq Thompson and has several key starters out for Week 5, making an already questionable defense almost non-existent.
On the other hand, Chicago’s defense is solid. The Bears flipped a switch midway through last season and have continued to wreak havoc, heading into Week 5 ranked in the Top 5 in many advanced metrics – with five interceptions and three fumble recoveries.
As long as Caleb Williams and the offense don’t self-destruct, this should be one of the easier wins on the Bears’ schedule. Chicago may not have a lot of future value, so I’ll use them now rather than save them for later.
